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標題: 中國的至命一擊：S-400對台灣的威脅迫在眉睫 [打印本頁]
作者: MightyDragon    時間: 2014-12-7 10:41 AM     標題: 中國的至命一擊：S-400對台灣的威脅迫在眉睫


繼續中國威脅論：今次是尚未有官方消息謂已購入的俄國S-400防空系統。先重申S-400不是一種飛彈而是多種飛彈和雷達、指揮控制系統的集成：S-400包括48N6DM、9M96E、9M96M、48N6和40N6等，達8種之多。S-400其中射程最長的是新型的40N6遠程導彈(達400公里)，而其他的飛彈涵蓋了高中低遠近等各種射程，組成一個幾乎毫無破綻的防空火力網。然而對中國來說S-400最多只屬於「錦上添花」的程度而已…

Source: DefenseNews
Origina Title: China's Checkmate: S-400 Looms Large Over Taiwan
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TAIPEI — Taiwan’s F-16s face a growing threat from China’s arsenal of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). The latest and gravest is the Russian sale of 400-kilometer-range S-400 Triumf road-mobile SAM systems to China.

The Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation has downplayed recent Russian-language media reports of an agreement and contract, but “as I understand it, it is basically true,” said Vasiliy Kashin, a China military specialist at Moscow’s Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

Russian media reports indicate China and Russia have signed a US $3 billion contract to procure an initial six S-400 battalions. The missile is an upgraded variant of the S-300, now fielded by China in battalions based near major cities and scattered along the coast facing Taiwan and Japan.

Kashin, who attended the recent Airshow China in Zhuhai, said that with a range of 400 kilometers and fielded in Fujian Province, the SAM system will be able to cover the whole of Taiwan airspace, thus finally solving the “problem of air superiority for the Chinese.”

If China chooses to deploy the S-400 in Shandong Province, it will provide coverage of airspace over the Senkaku Islands. “That will be another asymmetric capability, together with anti-ship ballistic missiles, which will boost Chinese potential in dealing with the local conflicts in East Asia,” Kashin said.

China has staked a claim to the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which it refers to as the Diaoyu Islands. Other factors suggesting China will deploy the S-400 over the East China Sea include the fact that China declared an air defense identification zone over the East China Sea, including the Senkakus, in November 2013.

“Given its extremely long range and effective electronic warfare capabilities, the S-400 is a game-changing system that challenges current military capabilities at the operational level of war,” said Paul Giarra, president, Global Strategies and Transformation. The S-400 will have the “effect of turning a defensive system into an offensive system, and extend China’s A2/AD [anti-access/area-denial] umbrella over the territory of American allies and the high seas.”

The S-400 will give China more confidence in controlling airspace over Taiwan, and will serve as a critical factor in defeating Taiwan’s air defense capabilities during a war, said York Chen, a former senior adviser of Taiwan’s National Security Council.

After China’s surface-to-surface missiles destroy Taiwan’s air bases and runways at the beginning of a conflict, the S-400 could target remaining fighter aircraft that managed to reach the air beforehand, not to mention any US or Japanese fighters coming to Taiwan’s aid during the battle. Chen supports procurement of short take-off, vertical-landing aircraft such as the F-35B fighter and V-22 Osprey, for cargo/troop transport. China has 1,300 short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan. Air bases would be wiped out shortly after a war begins with China.

This possible SAM sale to China highlights the growing importance of Taiwan’s indigenous self-defense programs, including its stealth UAV program; its HF-2E land-attack cruise missile program; and its air-launched Wan Chien (Ten Thousand Swords) joint standoff weapon, said Ian Easton, research fellow, The Project 2049 Institute.

“Taiwan also has a clear operational requirement for large numbers of cheap ballistic missiles. In that regard, the indigenous technological capability is certainly there, but Taiwan has kept its programs remarkably well hidden,” he said.

Effective air defense systems like the S-400 are consequential because of the cost equation involved, Giarra said. Surface-to-air missile systems are much less expensive than the manned and unmanned aircraft they are designed to shoot down, and the very long range of the S-400 multiplies the advantage.

“Without effective countermeasures, aircraft will be held away from China’s coasts, giving teeth, for instance, to China’s assertion that surveillance missions in China’s EEZ [exclusive economic zone] are not allowed,” he said.

China has been adamant that US military aircraft cease flying within China’s EEZ and has harassed US military flights and sea-going vessels since 2001. In August, a Chinese J-11 fighter harassed a US Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft near Hainan Island.

Despite the threat an advanced SAM system to the region, there is confidence that Taiwan, Japan and the US will have options to defeat it, Easton said. These include electronic warfare and locating the radar and destroying it with anti-radiation missiles.

“As soon as its long-range radar was turned on it would be subject to immediate interception by Taiwanese signals intelligence [SIGINT] units on Tung-yin Island and Matsu Island,” he said. “It would also be vulnerable to American and Japanese SIGINT units on Okinawa and the surrounding islands, to say nothing of allied SIGINT-gathering submarines parked off the Chinese coast — and both manned and unmanned SIGINT aircraft patrolling the East China Sea.”

A Taiwan Ministry of Defense official said that though the S-400 is road-mobile, expectations are China would deploy them at fixed sites as it did with earlier S-300PMU SAM systems. “This habit will make them vulnerable to attack and no SAM system is perfect, especially Russian,” he said.

Taiwan has its own missile systems to counter China, such as the Tien Kung 2 and 3 SAM systems and the Hsiung Feng 2E land-attack cruise missile. Taiwan is working on an extended-range Hsiung Feng 2 anti-ship missile system with a 250-kilometer range, which is in the launch testing phase, he said.

Lin Chong-Pin, former deputy minister of national defense who also served as the first vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, said the S-400 is “another increment of a growing package of ‘game changers,’ which began emerging a decade ago.”

Taiwan’s military advantages over China began eroding in the early 1990s. As a consequence, China’s strategy “evolved from a war of annihilation to a war of paralysis as the battle scenario on Taiwan.”

Now, Lin said, even a military operation on Taiwan based on a “war of paralysis ranks low among Beijing’s options, as Beijing has available so many other what I call ‘extra-military instruments’ — economic, media-related, diplomatic, psychological — to eventually ‘integrate’ Taiwan into China’s fold.”
作者: 一战成名    時間: 2014-12-7 11:33 AM

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作者: zaqwsxdsa    時間: 2014-12-7 12:07 PM

在土耳其那次很簡單是簡配打全配...

只是價格上的問題S-400拿不出全配...如此罷了!!!

紅旗的價性比更好...但如果都拿出頂級來相比...S-400還會在紅旗之上...

但價格就不知道會到哪邊了...
作者: kuhwakimo    時間: 2014-12-7 12:21 PM

一戰成名 發表於 2014-12-7 11:33 AM
S-400的性能數據太假，我們還不一定要，特別是那8種彈藥,只完成兩種而且性能還不怎麼樣(這是一位資深軍迷分 ...

S-400的最太問題在於雷達照射範圍太大,波束強,只要有艦對地的反幅射飛彈,S-400的陣地實在是太清楚的目標,很難很假訊號來替代.
地對空飛彈系統並不是射程愈遠範圍愈太,就是愈好,如果發出雷
達訊號讓自己成為無法隱藏的目標.它就只是一個靶而己.
作者: 一战成名    時間: 2014-12-7 12:37 PM

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作者: zaqwsxdsa    時間: 2014-12-7 01:00 PM

本帖最後由 zaqwsxdsa 於 2014-12-7 01:02 PM 編輯
一戰成名 發表於 2014-12-7 12:37 PM
你的論點不可能成立，無論是FD-2000還是S-400，即然拿出去賣的就不可能是有全配的，自用版的和外貿版的本 ...


誰說拿出去賣的就不可能有高低之分???

要賺錢啥都搞得出來...不然台灣怎麼買到一堆次級品???

今天台灣如果真可以買DF-2000...你覺得他會給好料還是閹割品???


在過來...不管是賣啥東西!!!要不要賺錢???對方嗆明了多少錢要買...

賣方當然會惦店斤兩東西要怎麼賣才好...說不定飯局都吃好了!!!結果大家都脫靶就你老共的沒事!!!

這不是擋人財路嗎???

最後...說說梟龍這台戰鬥機...請問他是不是也有很多東西可以加購升級???這不是擺在眼前的嗎???

又更何況是以賺錢為第一目標的歐美...


還是說要我說!!!對!!!沒錯!!!老共的防空飛彈世界第一???
作者: 一战成名    時間: 2014-12-7 01:34 PM

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作者: JL9527    時間: 2014-12-7 01:37 PM

kuhwakimo 發表於 2014-12-7 12:21 PM
S-400的最太問題在於雷達照射範圍太大,波束強,只要有艦對地的反幅射飛彈,S-400的陣地實在是太清楚的目標, ...

你的基本雷達知識不正確.

一般雷達運行時會發射一個主瓣波和多個副瓣波,
主瓣波就是雷達用於掃描和鎖定目標的狹窄波束,
副瓣波則是多個向周圍其他方向生成的無用波束,
反雷達載機主要是接收副瓣波用作持續鎖定雷達,
所以提升主瓣波功率距離並降低副瓣波功率距離,
就是雷達技術的性能指標和未來必然發展的方向.

S-400的確比較容易被反雷達武器打擊,
但是原因不是因為S-400功率大距離遠,
而是它的PESA雷達技術降低副瓣效果弱.

而更新型的AESA和數字成波AESA技術,
則有效壓抑副瓣形成是未來大勢所趨雷達.
作者: 一战成名    時間: 2014-12-7 02:05 PM

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作者: playgaee    時間: 2014-12-7 05:47 PM

只要他傷到人民,恐怕彼此傷害都會很大,想清楚吧!
作者: rightxcrab    時間: 2014-12-7 07:29 PM

標題也可以改成「美國愛國者防空飛彈」

每個人都說自己好，老王賣瓜
作者: 棄天道    時間: 2014-12-7 08:19 PM

持續的老調重彈,倒底中國能否買到S-400?現階段就是還沒有買到,純粹紙上作業。現在俄國深陷烏克蘭泥濘,遭受西方經濟制裁,在軍事品項上某些引自西方零件現在也面臨斷炊危機。從常理判斷,俄國自家都沒得用了,還賣中國?難不成是陽春版?且,中國紅旗系列既然已經成熟到一階段,也不至於要接收這等陽春版貨色吧
作者: s17235    時間: 2014-12-8 02:59 AM

中國還需要買嗎???
不是都自發許多了
就算要買也是買來逆向工程
作者: steve3173640    時間: 2014-12-8 09:40 AM

台灣世守勢
這非但對台灣威脅不若攻勢方面對對天宮愛國者大
作者: love0970507380    時間: 2014-12-14 11:02 AM

俄羅斯都把先進的武器販賣給中國
老實講是不是有暗藏一手啊??
還是有更先進的武器等著問世??
作者: raruhaha    時間: 2014-12-14 01:15 PM

s-400對台灣真的是芒剌在背，不易防守希望阿共不要老是用武力恐嚇台灣人
作者: Gost00    時間: 2014-12-16 08:39 PM

S-400佈署下去，依台灣目前對空防禦系統來看要防住確實頗有困難
作者: tygyshcy    時間: 2014-12-16 09:42 PM

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作者: didadi23    時間: 2014-12-17 01:14 AM

龍大還真是專家中的專家!用防空飛彈來給台灣致命一擊!...害我掉了一顆大牙!
作者: mikefang1    時間: 2014-12-17 04:49 AM

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作者: RNAVision    時間: 2014-12-17 09:16 AM

其實本質上就是S300PMU2的改進型，里面的40N6導彈，米波遠程雷達等等核心裝備到目前為止俄羅斯也沒有裝備，都還只是小白鼠階段。老共有沒有興趣當小白鼠不好說。
俄羅斯真正的下一代防空是要靠S500的。



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